Game Preview: Grizzlies vs. Hornets

Today I get to trade game previews with the 3 Shades of Blue, home to an industrious trio of bloggers that cover the Memphis Grizzlies. These guys kindly took the time to answer some of my noob questions way back at the dawn of time(september 2007!) when I had just started my blog, and are pretty damn fine people all around, despite being fans of well, you know, the Grizzlies.

So, a few weeks ago they issued a challenge to the bloggers of opposing teams to do a Preview-off before their games and since I can't refuse any request for a sample of my writing, I accepted immediately. Here goes!

Game Preview:
Opponent: Memphis Grizzlies(2-5)
Relevant Opposing Blogger(and Preview!): 3 Shades of Blue

So far the Memphis Grizzlies have disappointed me. I had picked them to come on fairly strong this year, and had not at all expected them to start off as poorly as they have so far. From what I read of them in pre-season, they had hoped to use all their young legs to run and defend energetically. Well so far, they've fulfilled half of their desires, with a good pace factor and a fairly efficient offense, but defensively they are just downright awful, ranking fourth from the bottom of the league. They are running up against a team built completely opposite from them. The Hornets are slow, slow, slow, near the bottom of the league in pace factor, but have so far played efficiently on offense(10th) and unleashed a smothering defense(2nd).

Of special note, the Grizzlies turn the ball over a lot, with 5 of their top 6 players averaging 2 or more a game - and none of them are the starting point guard, which is the only position that has an excuse to throw the ball away that often.

Positional Analysis
PG: Damon Stoudamire vs. Chris Paul
Advantage: Hornets
I won't sugar coat this. Paul is going to rip Stoudamire apart. I'm not really sure why Mighty Mouse is even starting for this team anymore. His one skill was scoring, and he's not doing much of that any more - and what he is doing is very inefficient. Conley has shown he's the best PG on the team in his limited minutes. They should unleash him - and then at least Chris Paul would be challenged.

SG: Mike Miller vs. Morris Peterson
Advantage: Memphis
Mike Miller has always been tagged a "shooter", but that's a complete crock. While Miller is indeed a good shooter, he's a decent ball handler and slasher, and has a much more complete offensive game than is credited for. Despite Morris Peterson's 27 point outburst against the 76ers, he is much more of a stationary shooter than Mike.

SF: Rudy Gay vs. Peja Stojakovic
Advantage: Even
This is a matchup of opposites. Gay is a young, athletic slasher with a questionable shot, though he has the ability to get hot from range. Peja Stojakovic is a old, slow marksman that can sometimes out-savvy players down low but is usually a liability near the basket. Gay fouls a lot, too much in fact. Peja rarely fouls, even when he should to prevent a layup. The only thing these guys have in common is both of them should be much, much better rebounders than they are. If Gay can figure out how to stop fouling so much, and cut down on turnovers, he's going to pass Peja pretty soon, but right now, it's even.

PF: Pau Gasol vs. David West
Advantage: Hornets
And here's the crux of the matter. The Pau Gasol of the past was clearly better than West. Somehow, the Spanish big man is only managing 10 shots a game, and a few rebounds here and there. He needs to do one of three things: Pull aside Iavaroni and tell him to stop playing players who can't get him the damn ball, go to his teammates and demand the damn ball, or go to the boards and get the damn ball. Better yet, he should do all three. If he does, this would again be a position of strength for the Grizzlies. West will again display his versatility, hitting shots from all over on spot ups and off the dribble, and get his usual 18 and 8.

C: Darko Milicic vs. Tyson Chandler
Advantage: Hornets
Darko started slow but has been gaining steam as the season goes on. He'll struggle against Tyson's defense, but I'm sure a couple of Hornets players will be swallowing shots he rejects back in their face as well. In the end, though, he's about an average starter, and Tyson is better than average.

Bench:
Advantage: Hornets
I'm a little confused by this. I thought the Grizzlies bench would be strong this year, with Lowry, Hak, Kinsey and Navarro providing a nice punch off the pine. Perhaps even Cardinal, a desperately underappreciated player, would provide a nice spark for the Grizz. Instead, Navarro can't shoot, Hak and Kinsey don't play, Lowry is a bundle of energy that's having trouble holding on to the ball and scoring, and somehow Casey Jacobsen is getting 15 minutes a game despite his shooting touch having been left in Europe. Casey Freakin' Jacobsen, who couldn't keep a job with the Hornets when their starting wing was Lee Nailon. Electric rookie Conley is the one saving grace here, though he should be starting.

So far, the Grizzly bench has not packed much offensive punch, while the Hornets second unit is a great defensive squad, with enough scorers in Pargo, Butler and Jackson that it can keep the game in line while the starters rest. The Grizzlies are going to have trouble if Conley and Lowry don't catch fire.

Final Eval:
In the end, the Grizzlies are going to have to hound Paul and defend the perimeter closely or the Hornets are going to crush them under three point shots and dribble penetration like they've done to 7 other teams to start this season. Offensively, if the Grizz can run and keep care of the ball, the Hornets have shown their transition defense can be exploited.(it was ugly in New Jersey) If they get stuck in a half-court offense, the Hornets defense will harass them into errors and bad shots.

Hornets win, 98-90

Now go, look at the 3 Shades of Blue Preview!